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Model lab

Inspect model probabilities and data quality.

This page exposes independent Poisson outputs, Dixon-Coles low-score correction, and the historical team-strength inputs that create xG. Thin samples are flagged before anyone treats the model as calibrated.

Strong home favorite

Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Hainiu

xG input: 2.40–0.70

Home

75.1%

Draw

15.9%

Away

9.0%

Dixon-Coles adjusted

ρ -0.10

Home

74.3%

Draw

17.4%

Away

8.2%

Draw delta vs Poisson: +1.5%

Most likely scorelines

2–013.0%
3–010.4%
1–010.1%
2–19.1%

Balanced market

Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano

xG input: 1.25–1.05

Home

40.8%

Draw

28.2%

Away

31.0%

Dixon-Coles adjusted

ρ -0.10

Home

39.5%

Draw

30.8%

Away

29.7%

Draw delta vs Poisson: +2.6%

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%
0–011.3%
1–011.2%
0–19.2%

Away edge

Aston Villa vs Liverpool

xG input: 1.10–1.85

Home

22.4%

Draw

22.7%

Away

54.9%

Dixon-Coles adjusted

ρ -0.10

Home

21.3%

Draw

24.8%

Away

53.8%

Draw delta vs Poisson: +2.1%

Most likely scorelines

1–111.7%
1–29.9%
0–29.0%
0–18.6%

Historical model diagnostics

League baselines and team-strength ratings

These diagnostics explain the stored historical data feeding the team-strength xG model. Warnings mean the probabilities are plumbing outputs, not betting-grade calibrated estimates.

7 leagues

Belgian Pro League

623 historical matches

Home goals avg

1.51

Away goals avg

1.20

TeamHAHDAAAD

Anderlecht

40H / 40A

1.190.941.020.94

Antwerp

40H / 40A

1.041.140.770.71

Beerschot VA

18H / 18A

0.841.250.601.58

Cercle Brugge

36H / 36A

0.881.321.021.06

Charleroi

40H / 40A

0.960.890.980.88

Club Brugge

40H / 40A

1.680.891.560.73

Dender

37H / 38A

0.701.260.941.34

Genk

40H / 40A

1.040.771.310.99

Gent

40H / 40A

0.941.100.851.14

Kortrijk

18H / 18A

0.771.200.881.36

Mechelen

40H / 40A

1.061.080.961.09

Oud-Heverlee Leuven

40H / 40A

0.780.960.691.09

RAAL La Louviere

18H / 17A

0.590.920.881.09

St Truiden

38H / 38A

1.061.091.091.08

St. Gilloise

40H / 40A

1.370.421.120.58

Standard

40H / 40A

0.550.830.790.81

Waregem

18H / 18A

0.991.021.201.14

Westerlo

40H / 40A

1.091.191.101.07

Bundesliga

612 historical matches

Home goals avg

1.70

Away goals avg

1.48

TeamHAHDAAAD

Augsburg

34H / 34A

0.740.950.741.10

Bayern Munich

34H / 34A

2.090.701.990.57

Bochum

17H / 17A

0.551.310.681.17

Dortmund

34H / 34A

1.450.701.130.86

Ein Frankfurt

34H / 34A

1.210.971.171.07

FC Koln

17H / 17A

1.041.190.751.14

Freiburg

34H / 34A

1.120.950.701.07

Hamburg

17H / 17A

0.860.870.601.10

Heidenheim

34H / 34A

0.621.390.831.14

Hoffenheim

34H / 34A

1.041.131.011.09

Holstein Kiel

17H / 17A

0.831.630.991.35

Leverkusen

34H / 34A

1.280.811.310.85

M'gladbach

34H / 34A

0.910.990.871.04

Mainz

34H / 34A

0.780.851.070.91

RB Leipzig

34H / 34A

1.260.850.910.90

St Pauli

34H / 34A

0.470.990.600.88

Stuttgart

34H / 34A

1.120.851.391.02

Union Berlin

34H / 34A

0.760.970.701.04

Werder Bremen

34H / 34A

0.691.131.011.04

Wolfsburg

34H / 34A

0.831.231.051.05

La Liga

760 historical matches

Home goals avg

1.51

Away goals avg

1.14

TeamHAHDAAAD

Alaves

38H / 38A

0.680.970.991.08

Ath Bilbao

38H / 38A

0.940.780.990.92

Ath Madrid

38H / 38A

1.410.741.130.73

Barcelona

38H / 38A

1.900.692.030.78

Betis

38H / 38A

1.150.921.151.01

Celta

38H / 38A

1.061.131.170.97

Elche

19H / 19A

1.040.870.871.32

Espanol

38H / 38A

0.771.010.901.08

Getafe

38H / 38A

0.570.810.760.73

Girona

38H / 38A

0.831.310.811.01

Las Palmas

19H / 19A

0.731.330.871.11

Leganes

19H / 19A

0.801.240.741.01

Levante

19H / 19A

0.901.290.971.15

Mallorca

38H / 38A

0.890.970.711.03

Osasuna

38H / 38A

1.111.080.640.96

Oviedo

19H / 19A

0.310.830.781.46

Real Madrid

38H / 38A

1.570.811.500.66

Sevilla

38H / 38A

0.711.101.081.17

Sociedad

38H / 38A

0.991.170.850.97

Valencia

38H / 38A

0.920.990.851.15

Valladolid

19H / 19A

0.381.470.692.02

Vallecano

38H / 38A

0.830.940.780.83

Villarreal

38H / 38A

1.581.061.200.89

Ligue 1

611 historical matches

Home goals avg

1.60

Away goals avg

1.31

TeamHAHDAAAD

Angers

34H / 34A

0.661.190.560.88

Auxerre

34H / 34A

0.770.770.901.12

Brest

34H / 34A

1.090.990.811.29

Le Havre

34H / 34A

0.641.330.831.03

Lens

34H / 34A

0.990.791.220.72

Lille

34H / 34A

1.010.791.100.70

Lorient

17H / 17A

1.141.130.770.96

Lyon

34H / 34A

1.230.881.150.87

Marseille

34H / 34A

1.510.971.240.90

Metz

17H / 17A

0.551.440.771.62

Monaco

34H / 34A

1.310.881.171.03

Montpellier

17H / 17A

0.631.850.271.40

Nantes

33H / 34A

0.701.040.701.09

Nice

34H / 34A

1.050.951.041.09

Paris FC

17H / 17A

1.031.220.860.85

Paris SG

34H / 34A

1.580.631.800.66

Reims

17H / 17A

0.631.130.720.81

Rennes

34H / 34A

1.010.771.241.22

St Etienne

17H / 17A

0.881.490.681.62

Strasbourg

34H / 34A

1.160.881.150.96

Toulouse

34H / 33A

0.831.041.070.82

Premier League

760 historical matches

Home goals avg

1.52

Away goals avg

1.32

TeamHAHDAAAD

Arsenal

38H / 38A

1.320.561.270.57

Aston Villa

38H / 38A

1.140.840.961.00

Bournemouth

38H / 38A

0.900.721.271.11

Brentford

38H / 38A

1.261.110.960.92

Brighton

38H / 38A

1.040.921.151.02

Burnley

19H / 19A

0.621.150.801.59

Chelsea

38H / 38A

1.060.861.210.90

Crystal Palace

38H / 38A

0.740.980.980.92

Everton

38H / 38A

0.901.000.740.76

Fulham

38H / 38A

0.991.000.880.95

Ipswich

19H / 19A

0.481.750.881.32

Leeds

19H / 19A

1.000.840.801.21

Leicester

19H / 19A

0.521.350.721.59

Liverpool

38H / 38A

1.320.721.451.00

Man City

38H / 38A

1.520.741.210.73

Man United

38H / 38A

1.071.031.010.90

Newcastle

38H / 38A

1.321.000.900.90

Nott'm Forest

38H / 38A

0.800.781.191.00

Southampton

19H / 19A

0.451.870.521.35

Sunderland

19H / 19A

0.870.800.680.97

Tottenham

38H / 38A

0.991.311.090.97

West Ham

38H / 38A

0.871.270.841.09

Wolves

38H / 38A

0.801.310.701.23

Serie A

760 historical matches

Home goals avg

1.31

Away goals avg

1.19

TeamHAHDAAAD

Atalanta

38H / 38A

1.230.871.510.68

Bologna

38H / 38A

1.050.911.201.05

Cagliari

38H / 38A

0.931.130.751.17

Como

38H / 38A

1.270.911.130.80

Cremonese

19H / 19A

0.721.290.621.13

Empoli

19H / 19A

0.401.151.021.33

Fiorentina

38H / 38A

1.070.871.071.05

Genoa

38H / 38A

0.871.130.780.99

Inter

38H / 38A

1.810.821.730.66

Juventus

38H / 38A

1.330.691.180.76

Lazio

38H / 38A

1.211.130.930.76

Lecce

38H / 38A

0.521.220.641.07

Milan

38H / 38A

1.110.821.310.82

Monza

19H / 19A

0.521.380.671.53

Napoli

38H / 38A

1.310.691.150.64

Parma

38H / 38A

0.821.180.691.03

Pisa

19H / 19A

0.361.150.751.81

Roma

38H / 38A

1.410.551.000.82

Sassuolo

19H / 19A

1.011.150.930.97

Torino

38H / 38A

0.891.040.871.23

Udinese

38H / 38A

0.801.071.021.13

Venezia

19H / 19A

0.680.980.671.37

Verona

38H / 38A

0.541.420.711.27

Spanish Segunda Division

924 historical matches

Home goals avg

1.45

Away goals avg

1.13

TeamHAHDAAAD

Albacete

42H / 42A

1.071.201.010.90

Almeria

42H / 42A

1.541.031.241.13

Andorra

21H / 21A

1.021.051.310.95

Burgos

42H / 42A

0.840.740.800.75

Cadiz

42H / 42A

0.821.030.971.07

Cartagena

21H / 21A

0.431.180.841.64

Castellon

42H / 42A

1.281.121.201.00

Ceuta

21H / 21A

0.920.970.971.31

Cordoba

42H / 42A

1.071.141.071.15

Cultural Leonesa

21H / 21A

0.491.351.011.18

Eibar

42H / 42A

1.050.760.670.74

Elche

21H / 21A

1.210.630.930.62

Eldense

21H / 21A

0.851.310.761.05

Ferrol

21H / 21A

0.391.220.421.15

Granada

42H / 42A

1.050.971.071.05

Huesca

42H / 42A

1.021.030.781.03

La Coruna

42H / 42A

0.941.031.350.80

Las Palmas

21H / 21A

1.080.591.010.85

Leganes

21H / 21A

0.750.970.840.92

Levante

21H / 21A

1.380.841.140.72

Malaga

42H / 42A

1.050.841.120.95

Mirandes

42H / 42A

0.950.971.011.03

Oviedo

21H / 21A

1.120.840.930.72

Santander

42H / 42A

1.491.031.351.03

Sociedad B

21H / 21A

0.951.140.971.12

Sp Gijon

42H / 42A

1.070.991.101.00

Tenerife

21H / 21A

0.690.800.591.18

Valladolid

21H / 21A

0.750.890.891.18

Zaragoza

42H / 42A

0.751.220.951.05

Model caveat

The Dixon-Coles correction shown here uses a provisional ρ of -0.10 to expose behavior, not a fitted parameter. Production should estimate ρ from historical league data, then validate calibration and closing-line value before trusting stake suggestions.