Premier League · Today · 20:00
Liverpool
Aston Villa vs Liverpool
Model
84.9%
No-vig
45.9%
Odds
2.05
Find markets where your model beats the book.
Edge Scout compares model probability against no-vig market probability, then ranks the biggest edges. The goal is calibrated decision support — not guaranteed betting picks.
Core formula
Edge = Model Probability − No‑Vig Market Probability
Positive edge means the model estimates a higher chance than the market after bookmaker margin is removed.
Tracked metrics
CLV · Brier · Log Loss
MVP model
Poisson xG → 1X2
Next model layer
Dixon‑Coles adjustment
Top value
Ranked model edges
+39.0%
Chinese Super League · Today · 13:35
Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Hainiu
Model
99.1%
No-vig
63.5%
Odds
1.48
La Liga · Today · 18:30
Valencia
Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano
Model
60.8%
No-vig
43.6%
Odds
2.18
Market board
1X2 probability comparison
Premier League · Today · 20:00
Aston Villa vs Liverpool
Aston Villa
-25.3%- Model
- 4.1%
- Market
- 29.4%
- Current odds
- 3.20
Draw
-13.8%- Model
- 11.0%
- Market
- 24.7%
- Current odds
- 3.80
Liverpool
+39.0%- Model
- 84.9%
- Market
- 45.9%
- Current odds
- 2.05
Chinese Super League · Today · 13:35
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Hainiu
Beijing Guoan
+35.6%- Model
- 99.1%
- Market
- 63.5%
- Current odds
- 1.48
Draw
-20.5%- Model
- 0.9%
- Market
- 21.4%
- Current odds
- 4.40
Qingdao Hainiu
-15.2%- Model
- 0.0%
- Market
- 15.2%
- Current odds
- 6.20
La Liga · Today · 18:30
Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano
Valencia
+17.2%- Model
- 60.8%
- Market
- 43.6%
- Current odds
- 2.18
Draw
-4.8%- Model
- 24.9%
- Market
- 29.7%
- Current odds
- 3.20
Rayo Vallecano
-12.5%- Model
- 14.3%
- Market
- 26.8%
- Current odds
- 3.55
Risk note
Edge Scout is a research and probability-calibration tool. It does not guarantee wins, does not remove variance, and should not be treated as financial advice. Future versions should track closing line value, Brier Score, Log Loss, and calibration buckets before any staking model is trusted.